Abstract:
It seems there's a big regional deal for the Middle East, aiming to have a compromise between "moderate" Arab countries and Israel, who are now allies, as Netanyahu stated in America last week, under the umbrella of "fighting terrorism".
This deal aims to make use of a very rare moment in the recent history, in which leaders of Arab countries, Israel, white house and even Russia agree that Fundamental Islam is the enemy, not the Israeli occupation.
It's likely that such deal will be announced in the forthcoming Arab league summit in March in Jordan, whose monarch visited Egypt lately, probably to discuss such deal.
And this deal contains land Exchange between Egypt's Sinai and Negev desert of Israel, settling of Palestinian refugees in Sinai, and International recognition of Settlements in west bank. This may be the reason for the evacuation of Coptic families from El Arish, northern Sinai, as a part of the strategy of tension, made by the regime, to pass land transfer project!
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1- Who gave the order to Evacuate Copts from Sinai?
The military regime has always presented itself to the international community as the keeper of Copts and Jews. This was the argument of the British occupation in the past too.
After the blast hit the small church of St. Peter and St. Paul attached to the St. Mark's Coptic Orthodox Cathedral in the city's Abbassiya district, few months ago, the Copts, Pope Tawadros II of Alexandria, Top Christian leader, refused any accusation of security failure, showing support to President Sisi.
But after killing of 7 Copts in one day last week, in random accidents endorsed by ISIS, Copts began to leave their towns, accusing security forces with neglect, and inability to secure them.
The most prominent statement of minister of Interior was to deny their responsibility of asking Copts to leave, which provokes questions about the identity of the person gave that order! The most likely is that the church has given such order this time.
It's preliminary that church, which arranged reception pf immigrant families in nearby city of Ismailia, couldn't made such decision randomly or all of the sudden. It mush has discussed the decision with many parties, internally and foreign!
But why did the church make such decision which shows security status in Sinai completely out of control and security forces there completely unable to protect them?
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2- Why at this time??
Along the course of its history, ISIS assaults against minorities were the paving argument and green light for international intervention in the area where ISIS strikes first. This happened with Yazidis in Iraq, in the era of Obama, the president who was completely unwilling to intervene military. You can imagine what'd happen in the era of Trump, who has tweeted two weeks ago about suppression occur to the Christians in the Middle East in particular! Was it an expectation of an information??
Let's try to link what happen in Sinai now to a previous tweet of an Israeli minister in which he said Netanyahu and Trump will endorse Sisi plan to settle Palestinians in Sinai! Let's try to link this to the leaks of Aqaba summit last year from Kerry assistant to Ha'aretz. This all leads to a big regional compromise for the struggle in the Middle East, which Netanyahu talked about during his visit to Washington DC. But what are the features of such compromise?
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3- What are the features of such compromise?
There's been many leaks about land transfer project between Egypt and Israel, as a solution for the final status settlement, which contains the following features:
a- The tweet of the Israeli minister is correct, and there's a proposal from Egypt's Sisi to settle the Palestinians in a part of Sinai.
b- This offer is not the first, and Palestinian president M. Abbas stated before that Israel offered him a state in Sinai, in 2012, but he declined.
c- This offer includes land exchange, by which Gaza strip will be expanded inside Egypt till the city of El-Arish, where Palestinians can establish their state, in return of giving up the right of coming backs of the refugees, and full recognition of settlements in the west bank.
d- Egypt takes some land in Negev desert in return, receive financial aids about 100-150 billion dollars and an enormous water-desalination station to substitute the shortage of River Nile's water, due to Ethiopian high dam.
e- Israel is to allow digging a tunnel linking Egypt and Jordan, from east to west, 5 km away from Eilat, and this was most likely the reason of both countries leaders' summit few days ago.
f- This could never happen without an Israeli guarantee of free passing from the Egypt bay of Tiran, that's why it pressed for passing of naval border agreement between Egypt and KSA.
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What's is the aim of Sectarian tension in Saini now?
We are in front of two main possibilities:
a- Sectarian tension is made by regime in purpose, to show that Copts are in secure, as an introduction to international intervention, Isolation parts of Sinai for the Israeli –US project of land transfer.
This is called strategy of tension, aimed to divide, manipulate, and control public opinion using fear, propaganda, disinformation, psychological warfare, agents provocateurs, and false flag terrorist actions in order to achieve their strategic aims. This strategy was used by Western governments during the Cold War, and proven to be right after knowing that Mubarak regime was responsible of Alexandria Church bombing in late 2010.
This means practically the death of two state solution, which is very bad solution Israel can't bear, in the opinion of many politicians, I called them (Middle West) in former articles. (Europe without UK, and Canada) while is welcomed by Far west (Trump, UK, Rightest parties of Europe)
b- This tension is not made by the regime, which means that there's a strong resistant to the project of land transfer, especially, that was an accusation of ousted president Muhammed Morsi before July 3rd military coup, which appeared to be untrue charge.
This resistance is inside Egypt and foreign, belongs to the middle west team, which leaked about Aqaba summit, and tried to rocket Eilat few weeks ago, and targeted Copts in Sinai few days ago!
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Anyhow, 2017 seems to be the year of the big deals, which seems to be against geography, history and people acceptance. Such deals, which don't remove Israeli occupation, establishing a Palestinian state in Palestine, nowhere else, would lead to more crisis, not a settlement!
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